This year's monsoon rains - is this an indicator of the future

Publication Date: 5 September 2012

Author(s): Rajendra K Pachauri

Abstract:

Delhi and other parts of the country have received excessive rain in the past few weeks, which is at variance with the patterns that we saw at the beginning of the current monsoon season. While most comments in the media are looking merely at averages and estimating the reduction in overall precipitation during this period, we have not really analysed in detail the substantial variance that we have experienced this year in terms of the timing of precipitation as compared with established patterns in the past. As far as the weather is concerned, averages can be very misleading. This is also true of temperature patterns, because outlier values of temperature can cause significant damage. Increase in temperature above normal at particular stages in the wheat cycle, for instance, can lead to significant impacts on the productivity of wheat. Similarly, if rainfall occurs heavily towards the end of the monsoon period it has serious implications for farming activities where moisture levels are critical not only in terms of the quantum of water available, but also the timing with respect to established cropping cycles.

Publisher/Organisation: TERI

Source: TERI Intranet